Transmutation rolling for Gear must change

[DamageIncorp]

The ABABAB is purely psychological unless the weights are indeed higher for those mods.
It is the same reason they show you the last 10 or so spins on a roulette wheel. If black came up ten times in a row, the next roll MUST be red right?
Every mod roll is independent of previous.
It should take a decently long time to get a max armor set for a 2 skill load out, nevermind multiple loadouts of different skills in my opinion.

[Golliathe]

The ABABAB is purely psychological unless the weights are indeed higher for those mods.

My empirical data from rolling in the last 2 weeks says otherwise. I know people keep saying that it is all in my mind... and if so where did thousands of extra phlog go from my inventory as well as from my friends?

When there are 9-10 options for mods it is nearly impossible odds for the item to keep going A-B-A-B for 8-10 rolls in a row (with a single break to c or d) and then resuming another 15-20 A-B-A-B rolls. And then there is the fact that this was not just happening to me but several people I know. I think it's all in YOUR mind and you have no data.

I agree that top gear should not be overnight but do you think 19 weeks is appropriate?

I know many people who have gotten multiple versions of a suitable armor piece and just wait for a better version to drop... because in a week of playing you can easily get an armor set. Maybe that should take longer to get the good yellows?

Increase time to get yellows via drop and reduce a great deal of the rolling agony?

[DamageIncorp]

Let's not get adversarial.
I have rolled ALOT of gear myself over the past year and a half so i have plenty of data and quite a large sample size.
Like i said before, unless the percentages happen to be weighted more heavily toward certain mods (which may very well be the case) it is just mathematics.
Have you ever flipped a coin and got 20 heads in a row?
Is the coin broken....no. however improbable it might be, it is still possible.
I guess we wait and see what the new changes reveal about the weighting.

[Jarlaxle]

I'm so glad Citan disagrees with you.

Now I will say that getting gear overnight is silly.... but so is the 19 week aspect.


On that note thank you as a developer for posting. Could you share any insights as to what might change?

Looks like he's more disagreeing with you than me tbh. Showing probability doesn't mean it'll now make having your desired mod easier to get than before. It just shows you what you're getting yourself into. Sometimes, you just might want to "settle" with a decent mod rather than the super mod in this current system. And do we really need to make an already easy game even easier?

[INXS]

the a-b-a-b-a-c-a-b-a-b-a-b is a true fact i've been rolling gear too for almost 2 years and the system is BROKEN, no matter what you say, unless we got a system were an ability won't reappear in the next 3 or 4 rolls, it's always going to be broken, why are some abilities having a higher probability of appearing? If that's the case then there is no pure randomness, a good example i have a Hammer/Mentalism gear my treasures for the hammer skill are all non electrical, i want to roll and get an electrical treasure, all that piece of gear is going to do is rehash 2-3 treasures which includes the one i'm changing with other non electrical treasure available for that gear, that is wrong and that's how it's broken, maybe Citan not aware of that or he is. Also is it possible to get rid of a BC golem treasure on a piece of gear, nope no matter how many times you roll it it's going to rehash all the golem treasures, what if i don't want a golem treasure on the gear i'm screwed, why because it's not random the system but pre-determined on only a few choices. So this is what actually happens when you roll treasure changing A you get high percentage of either B or C with a very very low for D, E, F, not equal percentage of either B, C, D, E, F, so now let's say you got C you roll again and available are high B or A, that's the way it runs, it's not random and meant to fuck you up royally every time.

[Golliathe]

Also is it possible to get rid of a BC golem treasure on a piece of gear, nope no matter how many times you roll it it's going to rehash all the golem treasures, what if i don't want a golem treasure on the gear i'm screwed, why because it's not random the system but pre-determined on only a few choices. So this is what actually happens when you roll treasure changing A you get high percentage of either B or C with a very very low for D, E, F, not equal percentage of either B, C, D, E, F, so now let's say you got C you roll again and available are high B or A, that's the way it runs, it's not random and meant to fuck you up royally every time.

I feel like some of the rolling patterns are not at all random in that sometimes you get a piece of gear and it rolls on the track of awesome traits (those D, F and G rolls). I got two pieces of yellow gear after the reroll frenzy ended that I fixed in 5-7 rolls. This happened a few times during the free roll week as well. Whenever a piece was not on the A-B-A-B cycle you could probably fix it in about 8-10 rolls.

I have no idea how the game determines the rng. Maybe it's a variation on the game time clock linked to an available number string based on the minute/hour/second . I say this because I have found that if you get an item with the A-B-A-B pattern you stop rolling and come back in ~15-60 minutes and the item won't be on that pattern anymore. This would also make sense in that I have had 3 yellow max enchanted items roll within a very short time period. I'm not saying that's how the game is for sure but given the circumstances I have observed it is a plausible explanation. It is also a simple way to approximate RNG and other games have used the same method.

That being said we should probably not know the details of the rng and how things are decided. I will briefly make a mention of everquest in that people basically found a way to cheat and use packet sniffers to get information they should not have had. Otherwise people will just start waiting for 11:59 on tuesday night to make guaranteed yellow boots.

But it is beyond stupid when you roll an item and get 4x a-b-a-b and then you repair the item only to get more a-b-a-b. All that's really going to do is drive people away from the game. Come back next week for more rolling insanity?

Like i said before, unless the percentages happen to be weighted more heavily toward certain mods (which may very well be the case) it is just mathematics.
Have you ever flipped a coin and got 20 heads in a row?
Is the coin broken....no. however improbable it might be, it is still possible.

As for the comment about flipping a coin the same side multiple times.... I've done it about 10 times in a row via cheating (takes some very skilled hands but you can learn to control the flip of a coin). And no by the way... no bet was made on it someone just wanted to see the trick.

Let's say you've flipped a coin and gotten it to flip the same side 20 times once in your life. How often are you going to have it happen again? This is a much more simple math problem than the one I presented; 2^20 = 1 in 2,097,152. By the way that is the result of 20 flips so multiply those odds by 20 to get the expected outcome where you expect it to happen once (maybe).

But let's talk about our findings. I had at least two pieces of gear with 9 or 10 options go through an A-B-A-B track with only one or two minor variations off that A-B-A-B track for near 30 rolls. This has happened multiple times before I just gave up and learned the lesson of patience and cheaper rerolling.

This same pattern happened to my friend multiple times.

This same rolling pattern has probably happened to IXNS given his comments.

Considering in my case I am using a 10 sided coin and a 9 sided coin (die if you prefer - not that it really matters). These odds work out that it should happen probably once ever in all the items I ever roll in the game. I'm aware it could happen but the odds are near zero that you get only about 4 unique variables to appear in the rolling scheme out of 10 when you are on an A-B-A-B pattern.

The odds drop to almost certainly drop to zero when it happens to me, and my friend and other people multiple times.


Therefore I'm betting on a trick coin somewhere in the mix. In this case I'm betting on an error with the number string for the RNG.

[Celler]

I don't really mind the current system, although I normally just alter a few things here and there normally, I switch skill sets too often.

My only concern is that as game gets nearer completion the whole system will be relatively pointless until near endgame.

Is anyone going to either farm or craft a full set of lvl 70 or 80 gear and then mod it when they are still gaining lvls and will be at lvl 90 in less than a week, I'm unsure.

For us now spending months on end at 50,60 and then 70 it's fine, just unsure if it's the ideal model going forward.

[Ranperre]

I don't really mind the current system, although I normally just alter a few things here and there normally, I switch skill sets too often.

My only concern is that as game gets nearer completion the whole system will be relatively pointless until near endgame.

Is anyone going to either farm or craft a full set of lvl 70 or 80 gear and then mod it when they are still gaining lvls and will be at lvl 90 in less than a week, I'm unsure.

For us now spending months on end at 50,60 and then 70 it's fine, just unsure if it's the ideal model going forward.

Celler makes a valid point. I love the current system. In fact, if I'm leveling two new skills, I'll make one set of gear at 40 and upgrade at 50 or 60. However, this can cost an insane amount of money and I only do it because I enjoy the gambling experience.

I know that Citan's SS showed a lower durability loss and that's great, but it would be nice if lower level gear required less phlog too. Something like 15-20 phlog per roll and a 12.5% durability loss at 40, with a gradual increase in phlog required and durability loss until the current max level is at whatever Citan wants it to be. If I'm going to sink 100-200k* into a good set of level 40 armor, it really should come out damn near perfect.

*15-25 max enchanted plus extra normal crafts for augment hunting. Probably closer to 200k

[Golliathe]

I don't really mind the current system, although I normally just alter a few things here and there normally, I switch skill sets too often.

My only concern is that as game gets nearer completion the whole system will be relatively pointless until near endgame.

Is anyone going to either farm or craft a full set of lvl 70 or 80 gear and then mod it when they are still gaining lvls and will be at lvl 90 in less than a week, I'm unsure.

For us now spending months on end at 50,60 and then 70 it's fine, just unsure if it's the ideal model going forward.

This is the missing unspoken piece that I was thinking but did not vocalize. Thank you.

Is there a timetable for how much xp or time is expected for us to get from 70-80, 80-90, 90-100?

Wearing lvl 70 gear I spent a few hours with buffs and went from 32 in a secondary skill to 46. But when I did it the first time around it took me closer to a week.


Let's pretend for a moment that the previously discussed timetable of 19 weeks to get perfect lvl 70 gear has no flaws from a rng component. That would maybe make sense if getting from 70-80 took 19 weeks. If however you can get from 70-80 in one week then the gear rolling system is a complete joke and is almost completely pointless.

[Golliathe]

I'm still waiting on a math guy to show up. Where are you?

I want to very briefly jump back to our A-B-A-B scenario. Joe Noob rolls his nice lvl 70 gear item that has 2 mods on job A and 3 mods on job B. Lucky for him the job B mods are perfect... so he rolls on the Job A which are both wrong.

He's rolling on 10 possible max powers ( note that some other slots have at least 12 options). The item holds 2 powers at any given time so in essence he's only rolling on 9 powers.

Joe rolls and gets A-B-A-B. Then he repairs the item. Then he gets A-B-A-B.

What are the odds of that happening?

Someone correct me if I'm wrong here but unless I'm mistaken that means each roll is going to be 1/9 to be "correct" with flat odds (which citan indicated is not exactly correct but just for a statistics standpoint let's consider flat odds).

That means the odds of this happening are 1: 4,782,969

I have had this happen at least 5 times in the last two weeks which is statistically impossible given the low number of total rolling events.


Ok now let's consider something a little more difficult (again correct me if I am wrong here). Instead of A-B-A-B-A-B-A-B we are going to throw in one other mod. It doesn't matter which mod, except that it isn't mod "G" the one that Joe wants.

So we're going to have 7 rolls be the same : 1/9. One of the other rolls (order doesn't matter) can be anything but G (leaving 8 possible viable options) so that roll should be 7/9.

That would leave us with odds that look like - 1 : 683,281