Gardening Almanach statistics

[Kirdikan]

Hello,

I have compiled statistics about the gardening almanacs. The source of the raw data are the Rowen Trading discord so thanks to them for collecting those informations.

No one will disagree if i say the gardening almanac was a great addition to the game. However it can also be very frustrating. We often have the feeling that some almanacs are far more frequent than others.

The intent of this thread is to provide data and i hope it will start a discussion on how to improve this feature.

So here are the results :

- Raw data

I have used 380 gardening almanac information from 28 march 2020 to 11 april 2021.


- Stats by Zone


ZoneHow many
Gazluk46
Fae Realm45
Serbule44
Eltibule43
Ilmari43
Kur40
Rahu40
Sun Vale40
Serbule Hills39


Nothing much to say here. Each zone seems to have en equal chance to be chosen.


- Stats by Plant


PlantHow many
Cabbage24
Red Pepper24
Escarole23
Squash19
Potato18
Pumpkin18
Onion17
Broccoli16
Sugarcane16
Beet13
Green Pepper13
Pea13
Corn12
Cotton12
Barley11
Carrot11
Fae Mysotis11
Winterhue10
Basil9
Desert Rose9
Red Rose9
Daisy8
Pansy8
Bluebell7
Poppy7
Red Aster7
Tulip7
Violet7
Cantaloupe6
Marigold6
Dahlia5
Elven Lily3
Dandelion1


Now it becomes interesting. It seems ovious the odds are different for plants. Flowers almanac are rarer. Out of the 16 rarer almanacs, 15 are flowers.

Another interesting point is pumpkin almanacs. Pumpkin seeds can only be looted during halloween. This almanac should not be that frequent.

Fun fact : Next Monday will be the 1 year anniversary of the last dandelion almanac. :mad:


- Almanac repeats

For each almanac i have checked if one or more almanac of the same plant has happened the previous 1, 6 and 13 days. So it shows repeats of the same almanac back to back, in one week and in two weeks.

What i have found ?

There have been 10 back to back almanac of the same plant.

There have been 65 almanachs with one almanac of the same plant in the previous 6 days.
There have been 3 almanachs with two almanacs of the same plant in the previous 6 days.

There have been 116 almanachs with one almanac of the same plant in the previous 13 days.
There have been 23 almanachs with two almanacs of the same plant in the previous 13 days.
There have been 2 almanachs with three almanacs of the same plant in the previous 13 days.


- Beginner friendly almanac

I also wanted to check how useful the almanac were for new players.

For this, i have chosen (arbitrarily) which plants are beginner friendly and which zones are not.

For the plants, i have chosen a cut-off of level 40 gardening.

For the zones, i have decided only Serbule, Serbule Hills, Eltibule and Rahu were beginner friendly. I have excluded Sun Vale because you need to be a druid or an animal to garden there.

So with those criterias :
- 87 almanacs were beginner friendly. Good zone and Good plant
- 114 almanacs would have been beginner friendly if not for the HL zone
- 79 almanacs would have been beginner friendly if not for the HL plant
- 100 almanacs were for experimented player. HL zone, HL plant.

Here, the interesting number is the second one. No one like to see a « cabbage almanac in Gazluk ». Everyone is losing in this situation. HL players don’t care, beginners can’t go there.

The third number is not a problem. If there is a good HL almanac in a low level zone, new players will benefit from buffs (music, display, …) It is a win/win situation.


- My suggestions to improve the almanac

1- More almanacs in beginner friendly area (serbule, serbule hills, eltibule). They are the ones that can benefit the most from almanacs. Equal odds between each zone looked like a good idea but it makes more than 50% of the almanac not accessible to the players that needs it the most.

2- Rework odds for flowers. I agree that high level flowers should be rare, they are very valuable. But mid level and low level flowers shouldn't be that rare. By making them less rare, you will also improve almanac diversity.

3- Decrease odds of Pumpkin almanac drastically. Like i said before, pumpkin seeds can't be looted outside halloween so no reason to see this almanac that much.

4- Block repeat of the same almanac in a 7 days period.

5- Block low level almanacs (potato, onion, cabbage, beet, bluebell, red aster) to happen in high level zone.


Thanks for reading

Kirkidan

[Aionlasting]

Hello,

I have compiled statistics about the gardening almanachs. The source of the raw data are the Rowen Trading discord so thanks to them for collecting those informations.

No one will disagree if i say the gardening almanach was a great addition to the game. However it can also be very frustrating. We often have the feeling that some almanachs are far more frequent than others.

The intent of this thread is to provide data and i hope it will start a discussion on how to improve this feature.

So here are the results :

- Raw data

I have used 380 gardening almanach information from 28 march 2020 to 11 april 2021.


- Stats by Zone


ZoneHow many
Gazluk46
Fae Realm45
Serbule44
Eltibule43
Ilmari43
Kur40
Rahu40
Sun Vale40
Serbule Hills39


Nothing much to say here. Each zone seems to have en equal chance to be chosen.


- Stats by Plant


PlantHow many
Cabbage24
Red Pepper24
Escarole23
Squash19
Potato18
Pumpkin18
Onion17
Broccoli16
Sugarcane16
Beet13
Green Pepper13
Pea13
Corn12
Cotton12
Barley11
Carrot11
Fae Mysotis11
Winterhue10
Basil9
Desert Rose9
Red Rose9
Daisy8
Pansy8
Bluebell7
Poppy7
Red Aster7
Tulip7
Violet7
Cantaloupe6
Marigold6
Dahlia5
Elven Lily3
Dandelion1


Now it becomes interesting. It seems ovious the odds are different for plants. Flowers almanach are rarer. Out of the 16 rarer almanachs, 15 are flowers.

Another interesting point is pumpkin almanachs. Pumpkin seeds can only be looted during halloween. This almanach should not be that frequent.

Fun fact : Next Monday will be the 1 year anniversary of the last dandelion almanach. :mad:


- Almanach repeats

For each almanach i have checked if one or more almanach of the same plant has happened the previous 1, 6 and 13 days. So it shows repeats of the same almanach back to back, in one week and in two weeks.

What i have found ?

There have been 10 back to back almanach of the same plant.

There have been 65 almanachs with one almanach of the same plant in the previous 6 days.
There have been 3 almanachs with two almanachs of the same plant in the previous 6 days.

There have been 116 almanachs with one almanach of the same plant in the previous 13 days.
There have been 23 almanachs with two almanachs of the same plant in the previous 13 days.
There have been 2 almanachs with three almanachs of the same plant in the previous 13 days.


- Beginner friendly almanach

I also wanted to check how useful the almanach were for new players.

For this, i have chosen (arbitrarily) which plants are beginner friendly and which zones are not.

For the plants, i have chosen a cut-off of level 40 gardening.

For the zones, i have decided only Serbule, Serbule Hills, Eltibule and Rahu were beginner friendly. I have excluded Sun Vale because you need to be a druid or an animal to garden there.

So with those criterias :
- 87 almanachs were beginner friendly. Good zone and Good plant
- 114 almanachs would have been beginner friendly if not for the HL zone
- 79 almanachs would have been beginner friendly if not for the HL plant
- 100 almanachs were for experimented player. HL zone, HL plant.

Here, the interesting number is the second one. No one like to see a « cabbage almanach in Gazluk ». Everyone is losing in this situation. HL players don’t care, beginners can’t go there.

The third number is not a problem. If there is a good HL almanach in a low level zone, new players will benefit from buffs (music, display, …) It is a win/win situation.


- My suggestions to improve the almanach

1- More almanachs in beginner friendly area (serbule, serbule hills, eltibule). They are the ones that can benefit the most from almanachs. Equal odds between each zone looked like a good idea but it makes more than 50% of the almanach not accessible to the players that needs it the most.

2- Rework odds for flowers. I agree that high level flowers should be rare, they are very valuable. But mid level and low level flowers shouldn't be that rare. By making them less rare, you will also improve almanach diversity.

3- Decrease odds of Pumpkin almanach drastically. Like i said before, pumpkin seeds can't be looted outside halloween so no reason to see this almanach that much.

4- Block repeat of the same almanach in a 7 days period.

5- Block low level almanachs (potato, onion, cabbage, beet, bluebell, red aster) to happen in high level zone.


Thanks for reading

Kirkidan

What's an almenac??

[Ranperre]

Thank you for collating this data. I'm of the opinion that one dandelion day within a full year is unacceptable. Why even have this system if a single flower (a very important flower in the realm of flower arrangement atm) has the chance of being shafted all year? A pseudo-random distribution could help, also known as escalating odds. Essentially, after we have a given flower/plant day, the odds of this same plant/flower day happening again are very low (below what their expected weighting should be, not necessarily 0) and every day that flower/plant day doesn't happen, its weighting goes up. I would imagine all flowers have an equal weighting and dandelions just got the shit end of rng? 30 different outcomes over 365 data points is not going to give us a good distribution, pure RNG should be reconsidered.

We could also accept that double flower days are bad for the game, halve their return (50% chance to return an extra vs 100%), and make them much more frequent (maybe even double up plant + flower). This opinion has absolutely nothing to do with jealousy over having to cap flower arrangement without flower days.